NFL recap
Week 2 · 2026 — graded
Every completed week, the TD Board gets graded against what actually happened — the board exactly as it was published, no retouching. Settled like the bet: a pick who didn't play voids. TDs = rushing or receiving, the outcome the model is calibrated on.
Tier A
3/3
scored · expected 1.2
Tier B
1/3
scored · expected 1.0
Tier Sleeper
0/2
scored · expected 0.4 · 1 void
Overall
4/8
scored · expected 2.7 · 1 void
| Week | A | B | Sleeper | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · Wk 2 | 3/3exp 1.2 | 1/3exp 1.0 | 0/2exp 0.4 | 4/8exp 2.7 |
| 2026 · Wk 1 | 21/43exp 17.0 | 14/46exp 14.0 | 12/44exp 9.4 | 47/133exp 40.4 |
DET@
BUF4/8 hit- A93.441.4% TD✓ 2 TDs
- A92.941.4% TD✓ TD
- A88.641.4% TD✓ TD
- B62.128.2% TD✓ TD
Each card lists only the ranked threats who scored; the "N/M hit" badge and the tier totals above count everyone, so the misses are in every rate on this page. Graded from the week's stored board — Tier A / B / Sleeper are the top 3 / next 3 / next 3 per game, exactly as published. "Expected" is the sum of the model's calibrated TD probabilities over settled picks: if the calibration is honest, hits should track it over a season. DNPs void, same as the bet. 1 pick has no game log in the grading build (players who dropped off the featured list between builds) — shown as "no log" and left out of the rates rather than counted as misses.